We very often want to look into the future. Who has not dreamed of going back in time 10 years via the DeLorean from “Back to the Future,” buying up a bunch of Bitcoins, and returning to 2018? Sadly, we lack our very own time traveling car, so we’re left to wonder – what will the cryptomarket face in the near future?
We have some very well-informed guesses.
1. Regulators Will Advance on All Fronts
Firstly, the requirements for ICO organizers, cryptocurrency exchanges, and end users in all European countries, the USA, and Asia will have been significantly tightened, both in terms of registration documents and KYC identification.
Lawmakers will certainly try to regulate the activity of major players, but compared to the period of last autumn-winter 2017, the market has “cooled down” a little.
It appears that legislation in the cryptosphere has always been behind. Hundreds of projects have already launched their campaigns and raised money, and lawmakers in different countries are just beginning to adopt primary bills to regulate the industry.
So, all participants of the crypto market can be conveniently classified into these several groups now:
1) Crypto Funds. They have seen the prospects of investing in blockchain and are willing to take risks in developing this area. For example:
• Pantera Capital.
• Digital Currency Group.
• Blockchain Capital.
• Ceyuan Ventures.
• Node Capital.
• Mangrove Capital.
2) Idealistic participants.
Such people are scarce on the market now. For them, it is not profit that is important, but the very spirit of partaking in the economy of the future. Often, these are the most dedicated users.
3) Situational participants.
These are mid and top-tier businessmen used to adapting to new circumstances and entering areas that are deeply tied with the money. Most of them began investing at the end of 2017. When the market goes into decline, they instantly move into another industry. They see the new possibilities of crypto, but have no experience in a high-risk investment market. This category tries to form its own funds or to finance existing ones. Sometimes these are yesterday’s advisors and entrepreneurs from high-tech businesses who made good money during times of a growing market. They are experienced and can contribute more than just money to the project. For example: Roman Abramovich’s investments in ICO Telegram.
4) Opinion leaders.
One can count such users on a single hand: Roger Ver, John McAfee, Vitalik Buterin, Charlie Lee, Nick Szabo, and many others. They define the main trends of the industry and set the main path for the future.
There are a lot of players in the modern world, but absolutely all market participants will pay a great deal of attention to all statements made by the US SEC. Their decisions will easily take the whole market into the green zone, and both will be covered with a huge red tsunami. In the near future, of course, the SEC will approve one or more applications of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). What will this mean for the whole market? The influx of a large number of institutional investors and large capital spenders. The cryptocurrency and all startups will have the opportunity to reach a new level in their development.
2. State Cryptocurrency
Blockchain technologies have a great future: the Internet of things, the widespread use of smart contracts, and state stablecoins like uGold and uCHF are just a few to name. However, it is important for everyone to understand when blockchain is really necessary – rather than trying to use it absolutely in all areas. In the field of financial tools, Bitcoin, being the first mass cryptocurrency, has definitely shown how possible it is to play by new rules without intermediaries.
As noted above, regulators in almost all countries will tighten the screws and adopt legislation in the field of cryptocurrency. In the near future, central banks will try to cover the main financial flows on the issue of digital money supply. For example, the National Bank of Venezuela is already showing the national cryptocurrency on its citizens’ accounts. Furthermore, the Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Financial Markets of Russia is considering the launch of a stable crypto-ruble with the involvement of the Central Bank. It is only a matter of time before Blockchain technology will be fully tested by large players and introduced into everyday use.
3. Use of Blockchain in Elections
In Japan, in the south of Ibaraki Prefecture, a new online voting system was introduced, based on a new identification procedure and blockchain technology. The city of Tsukuba, known as the center of scientific research, was the first in the country to use such a voting system. What is the essence of this expression of will?
The system allows voters to submit their ballots by reading a special electronic card, thus being identified, and the blockchain technology prevents falsifications or changes to any final voting data. The only problem, which the Mayor of Tsukuba, Tatsuo Igarashi, pointed out after the vote, was related to the fact that some voters forgot their passwords for voting.
A similar voting system was in the congressional elections, using the blockchain platform. The pilot project was first launched in 24 of the 55 counties of West Virginia. To vote, the voter had to first register through the application.
Of course, this is the future of digital democracy.
When arguing about the future, we cannot omit talking about the past. At first glance, this sounds strange, but cryptocurrencies do not create a new market from scratch. Instead, they satisfy the demand that already existed in the past.
Elon Musk’s space rockets are the satisfaction of an old demand for rapid movement and our natural research instinct; it’s an innate system of human behavior responsible for the study of our surrounding space. Instagram satisfies the basic human need for communication. Bitcoin, which originated in the environment of crypto-anarchists, satisfies the basic need for anonymity and a respect for personal space.
In other words, most start-ups will die in the coming years, not because they lacked money, but because they make a product that nobody needs and the demand for it simply did not exist in the past. And this is really worth a deep amount of thought.
On October 31, 2008, someone, under the name of Satoshi Nakamoto, published a description of a decentralized cryptocurrency. That small text has changed the world. Blockchain, by virtue of its nature, is not an answer to the solution of all problems; therefore, the majority of new companies and startups implementing this technology will most likely disappear in the near future. However, blockchain, as a technology, allows for the organizing of remote participants without a “regulatory brother” and, where needed, the technology will find its application without a doubt.
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